Last week we had the opportunity to spend a few hours with Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc., talking about the economy and—more importantly—the impact it’s having on real estate.

We covered everything from inflation to tariffs to the long-term outlook for housing, but one key message rose to the top: consumer confidence is the number one issue in the real estate market right now. Not inflation. Not even interest rates. Confidence.

And that changes how buyers and sellers alike should be thinking about their next move.

The Real Story Isn’t Inflation Anymore

For the past two years, headlines have hammered us with one narrative: inflation. The cost of groceries, the cost of gas, the cost of borrowing—it felt like everything was ballooning at once. And yes, those were real challenges.

But inflation isn’t the headline anymore. As Tal put it, inflation has already been fought and is largely under control. It’s not what’s holding our market back today.

What’s holding us back is confidence—or more specifically, the lack of it. Buyers are nervous. Sellers are hesitant. Everyone is second-guessing what comes next.

And when confidence is shaky, the market slows down—sometimes dramatically.

The Biggest Housing Recession Since 1991

Right now, Canada is experiencing the biggest housing market recession since 1991. That sounds scary, and in many ways it is. But here’s the perspective that matters: this is a blip, not the whole story.

We are not going back to pandemic-era market madness—and that’s actually a good thing. The pandemic years were not normal. Houses flying off the shelf in 24 hours with 10+ offers, buyers skipping inspections, prices climbing at unsustainable rates—that wasn’t healthy.

This slowdown is painful, but it’s also part of the process of returning to balance.

Tariffs, Timelines, and the Bigger Picture

Tariffs, according to Tal, are here to stay. That means costs for certain goods and services will remain sticky. But in terms of real estate? That’s not the lever that moves the market.

The lever is confidence.

And while the national picture is gloomy, Tal predicts recovery will take until 2027 to really take hold. That may feel like a long horizon, but in economic terms, that’s only two and a half years away.

The important thing is that we’re moving toward a healthier place. This isn’t permanent decline—it’s a reset.

Canada Doesn’t Have One Real Estate Market

Another big takeaway? Canada doesn’t have “one” housing market. It never has.

Yes, national statistics make headlines, but they hide the reality that real estate is always local. Some areas are thriving while others are floundering. Even within one city, different segments can tell completely different stories.

Take Toronto as an example. The condo market is struggling—too much supply, not enough demand. But detached homes? They’re in balance.

That same principle applies across the country, and especially here in cottage country. The Kawarthas are not Toronto, and Toronto is not Vancouver, and Vancouver is not Halifax. Every market responds to its own local supply, demand, and buyer sentiment.

What This Means for You

So what do these big-picture insights mean for you as a buyer or seller in Kawartha Lakes right now?

Here are my three biggest takeaways:

1. If you don’t have to sell, don’t.

This is not the market for testing the waters. If your motivation is “maybe we’ll get a good price” or “let’s just see what happens,” you’re likely to be disappointed.

Buyers are cautious, competition is thin, and only the best-positioned homes are attracting serious attention. If moving isn’t urgent, this may be a time to pause and ride it out.

2. If you do have to sell, showing value is everything.

In a confidence-driven market, the question every buyer is silently asking is: is this worth it?

That means your home has to stand out as the obvious choice. Pricing strategy, presentation, staging, marketing—every piece of the puzzle matters more than ever.

You can’t just list and hope. You need to position your property so that even nervous buyers feel confident about making an offer.

3. For buyers, this is your window.

If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy, this is it. You probably have one year before prices begin to shift upward again.

Right now, you have choice, negotiating power, and less competition. That won’t last forever. By 2027, recovery will be in full swing.

And remember—real estate isn’t about timing the absolute bottom. It’s about buying well in a moment that works for your life. Today offers that opportunity.

The Micro View: Why Local Perspective Matters

One of the biggest mistakes I see is clients taking national headlines at face value and assuming they apply directly to their situation.

They don’t.

Here in Kawartha Lakes, our market is shaped by lifestyle buyers, downsizers, and families looking for a different pace of life. Waterfront properties don’t behave like suburban homes. Estate sales don’t behave like first-time buyer condos.

That’s why it’s critical to evaluate your decision in the context of your own street, your own neighborhood, and your own type of property.

The national story sets the tone, but the local story writes the ending.

Final Thoughts

Spending time with Benjamin Tal reinforced something I’ve believed for a long time: real estate is never just about the numbers. It’s about people’s confidence in the future.

Right now, confidence is low. But it will return.

If you’re a seller, that means doubling down on value and strategy. If you’re a buyer, that means recognizing the rare window of opportunity you have today. And if you’re neither? It means remembering that this is a blip in the bigger picture, not the whole story.

We won’t go back to pandemic frenzy—and thank goodness for that. Instead, we’re on the path to something healthier, more balanced, and more sustainable.

And in the meantime, the best thing you can do is make decisions based not on fear or headlines, but on your own goals, circumstances, and timeline.

Because in real estate—just like in life—confidence changes everything.