Last week we had the opportunity to spend a few hours with Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist of CIBC World Markets Inc., talking about the economy and—more importantly—the impact it’s having on real estate.

We covered everything from inflation to tariffs to the long-term outlook for housing, but one key message rose to the top: consumer confidence is the number one issue in the real estate market right now. Not inflation. Not even interest rates. Confidence.

And that changes how buyers and sellers alike should be thinking about their next move.

The Real Story Isn’t Inflation Anymore

For the past two years, headlines have hammered us with one narrative: inflation. The cost of groceries, the cost of gas, the cost of borrowing—it felt like everything was ballooning at once. And yes, those were real challenges.

But inflation isn’t the headline anymore. As Tal put it, inflation has already been fought and is largely under control. It’s not what’s holding our market back today.

What’s holding us back is confidence—or more specifically, the lack of it. Buyers are nervous. Sellers are hesitant. Everyone is second-guessing what comes next.

And when confidence is shaky, the market slows down—sometimes dramatically.

The Biggest Housing Recession Since 1991

Right now, Canada is experiencing the biggest housing market recession since 1991. That sounds scary, and in many ways it is. But here’s the perspective that matters: this is a blip, not the whole story.

We are not going back to pandemic-era market madness—and that’s actually a good thing. The pandemic years were not normal. Houses flying off the shelf in 24 hours with 10+ offers, buyers skipping inspections, prices climbing at unsustainable rates—that wasn’t healthy.

This slowdown is painful, but it’s also part of the process of returning to balance.

Tariffs, Timelines, and the Bigger Picture

Tariffs, according to Tal, are here to stay. That means costs for certain goods and services will remain sticky. But in terms of real estate? That’s not the lever that moves the market.

The lever is confidence.

And while the national picture is gloomy, Tal predicts recovery will take until 2027 to really take hold. That may feel like a long horizon, but in economic terms, that’s only two and a half years away.

The important thing is that we’re moving toward a healthier place. This isn’t permanent decline—it’s a reset.

Canada Doesn’t Have One Real Estate Market

Another big takeaway? Canada doesn’t have “one” housing market. It never has.

Yes, national statistics make headlines, but they hide the reality that real estate is always local. Some areas are thriving while others are floundering. Even within one city, different segments can tell completely different stories.

Take Toronto as an example. The condo market is struggling—too much supply, not enough demand. But detached homes? They’re in balance.

That same principle applies across the country, and especially here in cottage country. The Kawarthas are not Toronto, and Toronto is not Vancouver, and Vancouver is not Halifax. Every market responds to its own local supply, demand, and buyer sentiment.

What This Means for You

So what do these big-picture insights mean for you as a buyer or seller in Kawartha Lakes right now?

Here are my three biggest takeaways:

1. If you don’t have to sell, don’t.

This is not the market for testing the waters. If your motivation is “maybe we’ll get a good price” or “let’s just see what happens,” you’re likely to be disappointed.

Buyers are cautious, competition is thin, and only the best-positioned homes are attracting serious attention. If moving isn’t urgent, this may be a time to pause and ride it out.

2. If you do have to sell, showing value is everything.

In a confidence-driven market, the question every buyer is silently asking is: is this worth it?

That means your home has to stand out as the obvious choice. Pricing strategy, presentation, staging, marketing—every piece of the puzzle matters more than ever.

You can’t just list and hope. You need to position your property so that even nervous buyers feel confident about making an offer.

3. For buyers, this is your window.

If you’ve been waiting for the right moment to buy, this is it. You probably have one year before prices begin to shift upward again.

Right now, you have choice, negotiating power, and less competition. That won’t last forever. By 2027, recovery will be in full swing.

And remember—real estate isn’t about timing the absolute bottom. It’s about buying well in a moment that works for your life. Today offers that opportunity.

The Micro View: Why Local Perspective Matters

One of the biggest mistakes I see is clients taking national headlines at face value and assuming they apply directly to their situation.

They don’t.

Here in Kawartha Lakes, our market is shaped by lifestyle buyers, downsizers, and families looking for a different pace of life. Waterfront properties don’t behave like suburban homes. Estate sales don’t behave like first-time buyer condos.

That’s why it’s critical to evaluate your decision in the context of your own street, your own neighborhood, and your own type of property.

The national story sets the tone, but the local story writes the ending.

Final Thoughts

Spending time with Benjamin Tal reinforced something I’ve believed for a long time: real estate is never just about the numbers. It’s about people’s confidence in the future.

Right now, confidence is low. But it will return.

If you’re a seller, that means doubling down on value and strategy. If you’re a buyer, that means recognizing the rare window of opportunity you have today. And if you’re neither? It means remembering that this is a blip in the bigger picture, not the whole story.

We won’t go back to pandemic frenzy—and thank goodness for that. Instead, we’re on the path to something healthier, more balanced, and more sustainable.

And in the meantime, the best thing you can do is make decisions based not on fear or headlines, but on your own goals, circumstances, and timeline.

Because in real estate—just like in life—confidence changes everything.

It was a hot summer morning.
The kind of morning where you step outside and instantly think, yep… it’s going to be one of those days.

So naturally, I decided to make it hotter.

I walked into my hot yoga class, already sweating before I even unrolled my mat. The instructor looked at our red faces and asked:

“Why would you willingly add more heat to a morning like this?”

Then she smiled and answered her own question:

“Because you like to do hard things.”

And wow—did that land.

From “Can” to “Like”

I’ve always told myself: I can do hard things.

Over the years, I’ve proved it to myself:

• I’ve run a half marathon
• Taught myself to make sourdough bread (if you’ve ever wrangled a starter, you know it’s its own endurance sport)
• Hiked and climbed Mont Tremblant — 875 meters (2,871 feet) above sea level
• Left my safe corporate job to uproot my family and move to the cottage to start my own business

That climb up Mont Tremblant sticks with me.

The first stretch felt endless—steep, rocky, and the kind of uphill that makes your calves and lungs burn at the same time. There were moments I thought, what was I thinking? But then, step by step, the view began to open up.

And at the top, looking out over the mountains and valleys, it hit me: the work was the price of the view.

Real estate can feel like that climb. You start with excitement, then hit the steep parts—decluttering, staging, dealing with paperwork—and wonder if it’s worth it. But when you get to the “top” and see the new chapter ahead, you realize the hard was what made it possible.

I can do hard. I have the receipts.

But liking to do hard things?
That’s a different mindset altogether.

“Can” is survival. “Like” is growth.

“Can” means you’re capable—you rise to the occasion when you have to.
“Like” means you choose the challenge. You lean into it. You see the value in the discomfort and want what’s on the other side badly enough to keep going.

Why We Avoid Hard Things

Here’s the thing—human nature tells us to steer clear of discomfort.

We live in a world that sells us easy at every turn:

• Shortcuts

• Quick fixes

• “Effortless” everything

And sure, there’s nothing wrong with making life easier where you can. But when we avoid anything hard just because it’s hard—we stop growing.

Think about the last time you accomplished something difficult:

• Training for a race

• Launching a business

• Selling a home that held decades of memories

The pride and confidence didn’t come in spite of the hard parts. They came because of them.

Finding Joy in the Hard Stuff

There’s a weird kind of joy in doing something hard.

Finishing a tough workout.
Learning a skill from scratch.
Finally mastering the art of parallel parking downtown.

Hard things demand focus. They stretch our limits. They make us get creative in ways we wouldn’t otherwise.

When we moved from our suburban home to a cottage in the Kawarthas, it was one of the hardest things I’ve ever done.

It wasn’t just packing boxes—it was letting go of the familiar and stepping into a completely new life.

But that “hard” was also exciting. It pushed me to rethink what I wanted in my home, my work, and my daily life.

And now? Years later, I know it was one of the best decisions we’ve ever made.

Hard Things in Real Estate

Real estate is full of hard things.

Moving is ranked as one of life’s most stressful events for a reason.

For sellers, the hard might be:

• Downsizing from the family home after decades

• Selling after a major life change

• Preparing for a market that feels unpredictable

For buyers, the hard might be:

• Navigating bidding wars

• Adjusting expectations to reality

• Committing to a long-term decision in an ever-changing market

Here’s the shift:
When you like the challenge instead of just tolerating it, the whole experience changes.

You’re more open to solutions.
You stay engaged.
You see the finish line with anticipation instead of dread.

That’s where I come in—not to erase the hard entirely, but to help you move through it with more clarity, less stress, and maybe even some moments of joy.

How to Start Liking Hard Things

If embracing the hard doesn’t come naturally, try this:

1. Reframe the narrative.
Replace I have to with I get to.

“I have to pack my house” becomes “I get to prepare for my next chapter.”

2. Break it down.
Focus on the next small step, not the whole mountain.

3. Celebrate progress.
Notice and acknowledge the wins along the way.

4. Choose your hard.
Some challenges are unavoidable, but others we choose on purpose—because they lead to something better.

That yoga class reminded me there’s a big difference between I can do hard things and I like to do hard things.

One is about proving you’re capable.
The other is about enjoying the process because you know it leads somewhere better.

And much like that climb up Mont Tremblant, the hardest parts—the steep sections, the moments you want to stop—are exactly what make the view at the top so worth it.

If selling your home, buying a new one, or making a big life change feels like your “hard” right now—lean in.

The climb is worth it.

And when you’re ready, I’ll be here to help make the hard feel a little lighter.

The Bucket List Adventure You’ve Probably Never Heard Of

People dream of the Inca Trail. The Camino de Santiago. The Walk of the Gods in Amalfi.

All stunning. All challenging. All require stamina, planning, and a willingness to share your most unflattering angles in sweaty travel selfies.

But my bucket list adventure?

It’s not one you hike. You cruise it. Slowly, patiently, with one eye on the weather and the other on the depth finder.

Welcome to the Great Loop: a 10,000-kilometre waterway journey that’s equal parts logistics and magic.

This might not be Everest, but it’s no lazy river either.

So, What Is the Great Loop?

The Great Loop is a massive waterway route that circumnavigates the eastern portion of North America.

It winds its way:

• Up the Intracoastal Waterway from Florida
• Into Canada via the St. Lawrence
• Through the Trent-Severn Waterway and Great Lakes
• Then south again via the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers and other inland routes

Complete the loop, and you’re not just a boater. You’re officially a Looper.

And yes, there’s a flag. (It’s gold. It’s glorious. I want it.)

You get a gold burgee when you finish. It might just be a fancy word to say "flag", but this trophy-lover is sold!

Loopers Among Us

Every summer, the Kawarthas quietly becomes a stage for one of the biggest travel stories you’ve never heard.

Spend any time by the locks or local marinas, and you’ll spot them: sun-faded trawlers, sleek yachts, even the occasional houseboat—cruising through our lakes on their way across the continent.

Some of these boaters are retirees chasing a dream. Others are young couples remote-working from the water. I once followed the journey of a young man in a kayak completing the loop. People along the way fed him, offered bunkies, and cheered him on.

We live at the end of a bay—so the only time I see a big Looper boat is when someone takes a wrong turn. But I still go looking.

Thousands of people do sections of the Loop each year. A weekend here, a vacation stretch there. But only about 150 complete the full thing annually.

That’s fewer than summit Mount Everest most years—and Loopers do it with no Sherpas and far more pump-outs.

It’s Not for the Faint of Boat

This isn’t a pleasure cruise. It takes serious planning and nerves of steel (or at least, stainless steel cleats).

Loopers have to:

• Know the specs of their boat inside and out—especially height and draft
• Time their passage through the Trent-Severn, which shuts down in October
• Navigate hurricanes in the south, freezing temps in the north, and the unpredictable moods of the Great Lakes
• Plan around lock breakdowns—Kirkfield and Big Chute have both had issues in recent years

And then there's the cost: fuel, food, docking, maintenance, lockage fees. It adds up.

But so does the joy. Docktails with strangers. Sunrise crossings. Towns you’ve never heard of but will never forget.

Why It’s On My List

I live my summers vicariously through these adventurers.

There’s something romantic about a journey you can’t do quickly. One that requires patience, planning, and a bit of blind optimism.

We’re not on the official route here—our bay is a dead end for Loopers. But every now and then, one finds their way in by accident. And I drop everything to wave like I’m greeting royalty.

Because maybe one day, that’ll be me. Looping through the locks. Timing it just right. Earning my shiny flag.

It’s not about being the fastest or the strongest. It’s about showing up, staying the course, and making it through the locks before they close.

Want to Learn More?

If you’re curious about the Great Loop—or maybe thinking of trying a section yourself—you can find more information at the America’s Great Loop Cruisers’ Association.

Fast Facts About the Great Loop

• Length: ~10,000 km
• Time to Complete: 3–12 months
• Annual Finishers: ~150
• Official Recognition: Gold Burgee awarded by AGLCA

Thinking About Visiting the Kawarthas?

Whether you're boating, road-tripping, or just dreaming of slower days on the water—there’s something magical about summer in the Kawarthas. Get in touch if you'd like local insights or real estate guidance while you're here.

Let’s find your perfect place to anchor.

dadum... dadum... dadum...

The lake was fogged over again this morning. I was wrapped in a thick blanket. I couldn’t see across to the other side, and all the usual morning sounds...birds, frogs, lawnmowers...were muffled.
It’s pretty common this time of year, when the air temperature is warmer than the water.

Whenever that happens, I feel like I’ve been transported overnight to Amity Island. It gives me the willies. Makes me want to keep my toes on dry land.

I know it’s irrational.

I also know it’s completely out of my control.

Finn, our son, was 7 when he watched Jaws for the first time, and it took all summer to coax him back into the lake. Yes, he may have been a bit young for the movie, but he was going through a shark phase—a pretty common phenomenon among boys that age. I still remember him telling his Zjazja to “keep the salt away from the river—just in case.”

Because he knew sharks didn’t swim in fresh water…

But he also figured if one was really determined—with a serious grudge and a solid map—it could make its way up the St. Lawrence, through the Trent-Severn Waterway, into Georgian Bay and up to the French River… just to find him splashing around.

Technically? He wasn’t wrong.

Just like that early morning fog, the 2025 spring real estate market is messing with people’s heads. It’s responsible for more than a few irrational fears.

Right now, the market feels a little like climbing into a shark cage. There’s hesitation. A healthy dose of fear. You know the reward is down there, but it takes guts to get in. Most people on the boat are backing away quietly, jostling to hide behind the braver ones, hoping someone else will test the waters first.

This isn’t the market we’ve known the past few years.

Tariff threats from south of the border, a new-ish federal government, and the Bank of Canada (BoC) opting to keep interest rates steady aren’t exactly creating urgency. We’re in a classic wait-and-see pattern.

Buyers are afraid of jumping in too quickly and overpaying. Especially with so many listings to choose from. They’re wringing their hands, waiting patiently for the market to hit rock bottom.

Will it? Has it already? How low can it go?

What is this—a limbo contest?

I’ve consulted my Magic 8 Ball.

I’ve crossed my fingers, hoping for answers like “yes, definitely” or “signs point to yes.”

At this point, I’d settle for “ask again later.” But all I keep getting is “outlook uncertain.”

And sellers? They’re in no better position.

They’re watching their home values dip while listings sit idle. Gathering days on market like it’s their full-time job. They have plans, deadlines, and real-life pressures, but this market isn’t cooperating.

They say “fortune favours the bold,” and that’s especially true in Spring 2025. While sideline skeptics clutch their calculators and consult their horoscopes, there are opportunities for those brave enough to raise a hand.

If you’re willing to face your fears, do the research, and step forward, you can make things happen. You may not be able to control the market, but you can work within it. Stand out. Focus on what you can control: curb appeal, staging, and (of course) price. Bonus points if you nail all three—but even one done well can change everything.

And above all else: patience. The market is moving. Just at a sloth’s pace. Due diligence, repeat visits, offers conditional on sales, a day (or a week) to “sleep on it,” and those dreaded lowball offers… this is what a deal looks like right now. It’s not about one side winning. It’s about finding a win-win.

And for some of you, moving on simply isn’t optional. Even if it feels scary. That’s the thing about irrational fears: they don’t disappear just because we know better. They sneak in, settle under your skin, and colour all of your choices.

Whether it’s fog or finances, uncertainty is part of life. And learning to navigate it—without a map, without a guarantee—is how you get to the good stuff.

So yes, some days I skip my swim. 

And some days, a client needs a second showing (or just a call) to work through the things they can’t quite explain.

Because lake life comes with its quirks. And honestly? That’s part of the magic.

Just don’t bring the salt.